Monday, December 10, 2012

The Unintended Consequences of Piecemeal Electoral College Reform. Or How to Turn Pennsylvania into New Hampshire

So Pennsylvania Senate majority leader, Dominic Pileggi (R-9th, Chester/Delaware), is pushing a new bill to reformulate the way in which the Keystone state allocates its electoral college votes?

Instead of allocating the electoral votes in a winner-take-all fashion -- as is the case in 48 states and the District of Columbia -- the senator initially proposed shifting to a districted allocation similar to method utilized in Maine and Nebraska. Now, however, the newly amended approach proposes allocating the electors proportionally. The statewide winner would receive the two electors representative of the two federal senate seats and the remaining electors would be allocated based on the proportion of the vote each candidate received.

There is a lot going on here, so let's start with the basics.

For starters, the partisan intent here is to break up the electoral vote bloc from a reliably Democratic state. [Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since (and including) 1992. That is six consecutive cycles.] That is, to cut into the Pennsylvania and overall national electoral vote tally for the the Democrats. Both of the plans proposed by Leader Pileggi accomplish this, but the newer version is less beneficial to the Republican Party. Due to the way in which the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature redrew the congressional district lines following the 2010 census, Mitt Romney would have won Pennsylvania, winning more districts and thus electoral votes under a districted allocation than Barack Obama. As Nick Baumann pointed out in the Mother Jones write up, that would likely have meant Romney winning the 13 (Republican) congressional districts and Obama taking the remaining five (Democratic) districts plus the two remaining electoral votes for winning statewide.

Fair or not, that would translate into Obama winning nearly 52% of the vote in Pennsylvania but taking only 35% of the electoral votes from the state.

Under the revised plan, Obama's 52% would translate into 55% of the electoral votes. The president and Mitt Romney would have evenly split the 18 non-statewide electoral votes and Obama would have won the remaining two statewide electors.1 That is likely to be marginally more palatable to Democrats, but not nearly as good as taking all of the electoral votes under the current distribution.

Of course, there is unified Republican control (across the legislative and executive branches) in Pennsylvania that would not necessarily require Democratic support. But the intent of the switch in plans seems to be to create an argument based on fairness; that this is a fair way of allocating electoral votes. Pennsylvania Republicans would be on firmer ground with that argument on behalf of the revised allocation plan than attempting to push a districted plan that produces an allocation that does not reflect the statewide vote. ...or produces a distribution that is so noticeably distinct from the statewide vote.

--
Let's take a national detour here and FHQ will revisit the situation within Pennsylvania momentarily.

Normally, FHQ would be ecstatic at the prospect of such a rules change. In fact, I spent the weekend mulling over the implications nationwide. But this is not something that the Republican Party would necessarily want employed nationwide in each state. Strategically, a party would want to keep states that are reliably, in this case, Republican and maintain a winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes there. That maximizes the number of electoral votes the party would receive. Ideally, the party would want to push this strategy in blue presidential states that are redder down-ballot. This means states like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; Obama states where Republicans have unified control on the state level.

If we were to assume a proportional allocation of electoral votes across those five states based on the two-party vote (see footnote 1) that would have netted Mitt Romney an additional 40 electoral votes.2 That would still have put the former Massachusetts governor short in the electoral vote tally (Obama 292, Romney 246). It would be closer, but still shy of the 270 electoral vote threshold.

Granted, the calculus is more complicated than this. The Republican Party (nationally) would not want to employ this strategy in states that it could win outright in a political climate slightly more favorable than the one the party faced in 2012. That is cannibalizing the party's own potential electoral vote total. This probably eliminates states like Florida and Ohio. In turn, that reduces the potential electoral vote gain from 40 to 19 under the currently apportioned electoral college (Obama 313, Romney 225).

Now sure, if race had been closer in 2012, the addition of 19 electoral votes (or 40) could have mattered. It would also potentially have increased the likelihood of an electoral college winner different from the popular vote winner. If those are the rules, a win is a win, but FHQ is not entirely sure that increasing the likelihood of a popular vote/electoral college split is a goal for which we should be aiming.

--
This brings us back to Pennsylvania.

Under the right conditions, Pennsylvania adopting a proportional method of electoral vote allocation could increase the likelihood of the aforementioned split. This is even more the case if toss up to lean blue but Republican-controlled states like Michigan and Wisconsin follow suit. But let's focus on a scenario where Pennsylvania walks this road alone. The plan as outlined by Leader Pileggi passes the Pennsylvania legislature and is signed into law sometime before 2016. What impact does that have?

Well, we know that the resulting electoral vote tally for the two major party candidates is likely to be close. The math in a state like Pennsylvania is such that the non-statewide allocation will be tied unless one candidate -- over the last six cycles, a Democrat -- clears just under 53% of the two-party vote. Assuming the Democrat does clear that barrier, he or she would win Pennsylvania by four electoral votes. If not, then that candidate would win the Keystone state by two electoral votes.

Why would any campaign waste much of any time or money on a state where they would... 1) under normal circumstances gain two electoral votes and 2) have to spend a lot of money in media markets like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh?

The answer is they likely wouldn't. FHQ is not suggesting that the campaigns would not spend any time or money in Pennsylvania. Some resources would be spent there to be sure. But the motivation would perhaps be to spend money in a state where the electoral vote gain is going to be larger. There is a reason the Romney campaign turned to Pennsylvania late in the 2012 race. Ohio was not budging and even though Pennsylvania represented a state that was further toward the Democrats than the Buckeye state, it was one that was both largely proximate to Ohio in electoral vote strength and one that had to that point seen comparatively little campaign activity (There were potentially persuadable voters there.). With a diluted Pennsylvania, the next best options for the Romney campaign would have been to turn the focus to a similarly sized state even further out on the Electoral College Spectrum (like Michigan) or to spread resources across several states in an effort to recoup electoral votes lost in Ohio.

--
This plan just seems shortsighted. FHQ gets the perceived benefit in a national zero-sum game of winning electoral votes. And when couched in terms of fairly reflecting the statewide vote in the electoral vote tally the argument is even more convincing on the surface.

  • Yet, is it fair to Pennsylvanians to reduce the clout of their state in the electoral college -- to reduce the potential electoral vote prize there with the likely result of decreasing attention to the state? 
  • Is this reasonable when an exchange of nine electoral votes is very likely not going to alter the outcome of the electoral college? [The outcome is rarely that close. It would have made Bush's electoral college win wider in 2000, but would not have gotten him any closer to winning the popular vote. The intent in Pennsylvania anyway is to overturn a Democratic win in the electoral college. Those nine electoral votes would not have made a difference in any of the Democratic wins in either the 20th or 21st centuries. Even if you pull Michigan and Wisconsin in, it doesn't change anything. In some cases during Democratic electoral college wins those states were voting Republican.] 
  • Is is fair to Pennsylvanians to transform Pennsylvania into New Hampshire in the electoral college? [Yes folks, New Hampshire receives attention, but it receives the sort of attention a competitive state with four electoral votes would receive when compared to one with 20: less.] 

Why do that? Why dilute the value of a state in the electoral college for less than clear benefits?

Beware the unintended consequences of altering electoral rules.

--
1 There are a couple of interrelated items that remain unclear in the updated proposal. First, there is no mention of how fractional electoral votes will be treated. Second, there is no mention of third party candidates. If this is to be anything like delegate allocation in the nomination phase of the presidential election process, then there is likely to be a threshold that third parties have to reach in order to receive electoral votes. As it stands, a third party candidate has to win 5.56% of the vote in Pennsylvania in order to win one electoral vote. Even that is a high bar and may negate the need of a threshold. However, this has implications for the first issue: How and on what is the rounding of fractional electoral votes based? If no third party candidate crosses the 5.56% threshold, then that means the allocation of electoral votes would be based most logically on the two-party vote (or the percentage of the vote for each candidate who cleared 5.56%). As that count currently stands, Obama has 52.73% of the two-party vote which equals 9.491 (out of 18) electoral votes. That is not enough to round up to the 10 non-statewide electoral votes that Leader Pileggi's memo allocates to Obama. Either something is not right about that math or the rounding mechanism has not been adequately outlined.

2 The breakdown would look like the following:
Florida -- Obama: 16 (2 statewide + 14 non-statewide), Romney: 13
Michigan -- Obama: 10 (2 statewide + 8 non-statewide), Romney: 6
Ohio -- Obama: 10 (2 statewide + 8 non-statewide), Romney: 8
Pennsylvania -- Obama: 11 (2 statewide + 9 non-statewide), Romney: 9
Wisconsin -- Obama: 6 (2 statewide + 4 non-statewide). Romney: 4

This raises a couple of interesting points:
1) It is quite difficult to receive a high enough share of the two-party vote to round up and create any kind of cushion in the non-statewide electoral vote allocation. That means that the true difference in a moderately competitive state (Remember the targets are going to be blue states with Republican control. Those are typically going to be more competitive states on the presidential level.) will be equal to the two electoral votes allocated based on the statewide vote with one exception...
2) If things are extremely close, rationally acting candidates would prefer to push resources into states with an odd number of electoral votes. Winning a state with an odd number of electoral votes would produce a one electoral vote differential between two major party candidates in the non-statewide allocation plus the two electoral votes awarded to the statewide winner. These are exactly the types of calculations the Obama campaign was using during the 2008 Democratic primaries (and caucuses!).

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Thursday, December 6, 2012

The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum

The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (Election Day -- 11/7/00)
MA-12
(15)2
ME-4
(172)
NM-5
(251)
LA-9
(162)
MT-3
(73)
RI-4
(19)
WA-11
(183)
TN-11
(246)
CO-8
(153)
AL-9
(70)
NY-33
(52)
MN-10
(193)
MO-11
(235)
KY-8
(145)
SD-3
(61)
HI-4
(56)
IA-7
(200)
NH-4
(224)
VA-13
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(59)
PA-23
(223)
AR-6
(220)
GA-13
(124)
NE-5
(55)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(226)
WV-5
(214)
MS-7
(111)
KS-6
(50)
CT-8
(77)
MI-18
(244)
NV-4
(209)
ND-3
(104)
ID-4
(44)
NJ-15
(92)
WI-11
(255)
AZ-8
(205)
IN-12
(101)
WY-3
(40)
CA-54
(146)
FL-253 4
(280/283)
OH-21
(197)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(168)
OR-7
(258)
NC-14
(176)
OK-8
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1 Read the Electoral College Spectrum from top to bottom from the left and from bottom to top from the right. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%). Blue cells are for the Democratic candidate and red cells for the Republican candidate will converge at the tipping point state in yellow.

The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 280 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the Electoral College. To keep the figure to just 50 slots, it is assumed that the District is in the Democratic column.

Florida is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. It is referred to as the tipping point state.

4 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/13/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
WV-5
(159)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
MO-115
(273/276)
ND-3
(154)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-23
(265)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
CO-8
(142)
OK-8
(75)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
AL-9
(67)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
OH-21
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
NC-14
(177)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
NV-4
(163)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Read the Electoral College Spectrum from top to bottom from the left and from bottom to top from the right. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%). Blue cells are for the Democratic candidate and red cells for the Republican candidate will converge at the tipping point state in yellow.

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Missouri, he would have gained 273 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the Electoral College. To keep the figure to just 50 slots, it is assumed that the District is in the Democratic column.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Missouri is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. It is referred to as the tipping point state.
From 1996 to 2000:

The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (Election Day -- 11/7/00)
MA-12
(15)2
ME-4
(172)
NM-5
(251)
LA-9
(162)
MT-3
(73)
RI-4
(19)
WA-11
(183)
TN-11
(246)
CO-8
(153)
AL-9
(70)
NY-33
(52)
MN-10
(193)
MO-11
(235)
KY-8
(145)
SD-3
(61)
HI-4
(56)
IA-7
(200)
NH-4
(224)
VA-13
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(59)
PA-23
(223)
AR-6
(220)
GA-13
(124)
NE-5
(55)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(226)
WV-5
(214)
MS-7
(111)
KS-6
(50)
CT-8
(77)
MI-18
(244)
NV-4
(209)
ND-3
(104)
ID-4
(44)
NJ-15
(92)
WI-11
(255)
AZ-8
(205)
IN-12
(101)
WY-3
(40)
CA-54
(146)
FL-253 4
(280/283)
OH-21
(197)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(168)
OR-7
(258)
NC-14
(176)
OK-8
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 280 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
Florida is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.

4 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/31/00)
MA-12
(15)2
ME-4
(172)
NH-4
(275/267)
LA-9
(162)
AL-9
(73)
RI-4
(19)
WA-11
(183)
OR-7
(263)
CO-8
(153)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
TN-11
(194)
FL-25
(256)
KY-8
(145)
SD-3
(61)
HI-4
(56)
IA-7
(201)
MO-11
(231)
VA-13
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(59)
MN-10
(211)
AR-6
(220)
GA-13
(124)
NE-5
(55)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
WV-5
(214)
MS-7
(111)
KS-6
(50)
CT-8
(77)
PA-23
(237)
NV-4
(209)
IN-12
(104)
ID-4
(44)
NJ-15
(92)
WI-11
(248)
OH-21
(205)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
CA-54
(146)
MI-18
(266)
AZ-8
(184)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(168)
NM-53 4
(271/272)
NC-14
(176)
OK-8
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including New Mexico, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 New Mexico is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point. 


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/24/00)
MA-12
(15)2
IL-22
(172)
OR-7
(267)
NC-14
(168)
AL-9
(73)
RI-4
(19)
TN-11
(183)
NH-4
(260)
LA-9
(154)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
MO-11
(256)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
HI-4
(56)
WA-11
(201)
FL-25
(245)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
VT-3
(59)
DE-3
(204)
OH-21
(220)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
MN-10
(214)
AR-6
(199)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
CT-8
(77)
WI-11
(225)
NV-4
(193)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
NJ-15
(92)
PA-23
(248)
WV-5
(189)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
ME-4
(96)
MI-183
(266)
AZ-8
(184)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
CA-54
(150)
NM-54
(271/272)
KY-8
(176)
OK-8
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including New Mexico, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
New Mexico is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/17/00)
MA-12
(15)2
TN-11
(161)
NM-5
(278/265)
KY-8
(167)
OK-8
(72)
RI-4
(19)
IL-22
(183)
NH-4
(260)
NC-14
(159)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
WV-5
(256)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
MO-11
(251)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
LA-9
(240)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
FL-25
(231)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
CT-8
(77)
PA-23
(237)
AZ-8
(206)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
NJ-15
(92)
WI-113
(248)
AR-6
(198)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
ME-4
(96)
MI-18
(266)
NV-4
(192)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
CA-54
(150)
OR-74
(273/272)
OH-21
(188)
AL-9
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Oregon, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Oregon is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/10/00)
MA-12
(15)2
CA-54
(172)
NM-5
(278/265)
NC-14
(167)
OK-8
(72)
RI-4
(19)
TN-11
(183)
NH-4
(260)
KY-8
(153)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
WV-5
(256)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
MO-11
(251)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
LA-9
(240)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
FL-25
(231)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
OR-7
(221)
AZ-8
(206)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
CT-8
(81)
PA-23
(244)
AR-6
(198)
ND-3
(92)
WY-3
(40)
NJ-15
(96)
MI-183
(262)
NV-4
(192)
SC-8
(89)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(118)
WI-114
(273/276)
OH-21
(188)
AL-9
(81)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Wisconsin, he would have gained 276 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Wisconsin is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (10/3/00)
MA-12
(15)2
TN-11
(129)
NM-5
(278/265)
NC-14
(167)
MT-3
(67)
RI-4
(19)
CA-54
(183)
WV-5
(260)
KY-8
(153)
ND-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
MO-11
(255)
CO-8
(145)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
LA-9
(244)
GA-13
(137)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
AZ-8
(235)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
DE-3
(214)
NH-4
(227)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
OR-7
(221)
FL-25
(223)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
CT-8
(81)
PA-23
(244)
AR-6
(198)
SC-8
(92)
WY-3
(40)
NJ-15
(96)
MI-183
(262)
OH-21
(192)
OK-8
(84)
UT-5
(37)
IL-22
(118)
WI-114
(273/276)
NV-4
(171)
AL-9
(76)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Wisconsin, he would have gained 276 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Wisconsin is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/26/00)
MA-12
(15)2
IL-22
(129)
PA-234
(278/283)
NC-14
(167)
OK-8
(72)
RI-4
(19)
CA-54
(183)
WV-5
(260)
GA-13
(153)
ND-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
IA-7
(190)
MO-11
(255)
KY-8
(140)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
LA-9
(244)
CO-8
(132)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
AZ-8
(235)
VA-13
(124)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
OR-7
(218)
NH-4
(227)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
NM-5
(223)
FL-25
(223)
IN-12
(104)
KS-6
(46)
TN-11
(84)
DE-3
(226)
OH-21
(198)
SC-8
(92)
WY-3
(40)
CT-8
(92)
WI-113
(237)
NV-4
(177)
AL-9
(84)
UT-5
(37)
NJ-15
(107)
MI-18
(255)
AR-6
(173)
MT-3
(75)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 278 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.




The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/19/00)
MA-12
(15)2
NJ-15
(114)
WI-11
(265/284)
NV-4
(149)
ND-3
(67)
RI-4
(19)
IL-22
(136)
MI-184
(283/273)
NH-4
(145)
MT-3
(64)
NY-33
(52)
CA-54
(190)
MO-11
(255)
CO-8
(141)
NE-5
(61)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(200)
AZ-8
(244)
VA-13
(133)
SD-3
(56)
HI-4
(59)
WA-11
(211)
FL-25
(236)
LA-9
(120)
AK-3
(53)
MD-10
(69)
OR-7
(218)
KY-8
(211)
IN-12
(111)
ID-4
(50)
ME-4
(73)
NM-5
(223)
OH-21
(203)
MS-7
(99)
KS-6
(46)
TN-11
(84)
DE-3
(226)
AR-6
(182)
AL-9
(92)
WY-3
(40)
CT-8
(92)
PA-233
(249/312)
NC-14
(176)
SC-8
(83)
UT-5
(37)
IA-7
(99)
WV-5
(254/289)
GA-13
(162)
OK-8
(75)
TX-32
(32)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 283 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 Michigan
 is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/12/00)
MA-12
(15)2
NJ-15
(160)
FL-254
(270/293)
OH-21
(170)
ND-3
(74)
RI-4
(19)
WA-11
(171)
MI-18
(268)
CO-8
(149)
MT-3
(71)
NY-33
(52)
IL-22
(193)
WV-5
(250)
VA-13
(141)
NE-5
(68)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(203)
PA-23
(245)
LA-9
(128)
SD-3
(63)
HI-4
(59)
OR-7
(210)
WI-11
(222)
KS-65
(119)
SC-8
(60)
ME-4
(63)
CT-8
(218)
AR-6
(211)
IN-12
(113)
OK-8
(52)
MD-10
(73)
NM-53
(223)
NH-4
(205)
AZ-8
(101)
ID-4
(44)
TN-11
(84)
MO-11
(234/315)
GA-13
(201)
MS-7
(93)
UT-5
(40)
IA-7
(91)
DE-3
(237/304)
NC-14
(188)
AL-9
(86)
WY-3
(35)
CA-54
(145)
KY-8
(245/301)
NV-4
(174)
AK-3
(77)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 270 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

4 
Florida is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.

5 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (9/5/00)
MA-12
(15)2
MN-10
(166)
PA-235
(280/281)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(85)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(174)
SD-3
(258)
LA-9
(155)
AL-9
(77)
VT-3
(22)
WA-11
(185)
MO-11
(255)
NV-4
(146)
AK-3
(68)
NY-33
(55)
IL-224
(207)
GA-13
(244)
VA-13
(142)
NE-5
(65)
MD-10
(65)
NM-5
(212)
FL-25
(231)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
IA-7
(72)
HI-4
(216/326)
NC-14
(206)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
TN-11
(83)
OR-7
(223/322)
OH-21
(192)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
ME-43
(87)
MI-18
(241/315)
AR-6
(171)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(141)
WV-5
(246/297)
DE-3
(165)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
NJ-15
(156)
WI-11
(257/292)
NH-4
(162)
IN-12
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 280 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/29/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MN-10
(166)
SD-3
(260/281)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(85)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(174)
PA-235
(283/278)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(77)
NY-33
(52)
WA-11
(185)
GA-13
(255)
NV-4
(146)
NE-5
(74)
VT-3
(55)
IL-224
(207)
FL-25
(242)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(69)
MD-10
(65)
NM-5
(212)
NC-14
(217)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
IA-7
(72)
HI-4
(216/326)
OH-21
(203)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
TN-11
(83)
OR-7
(223/322)
DE-3
(182)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
ME-4
(87)
MI-18
(241/315)
AR-6
(179)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(141)
WI-11
(252/297)
NH-4
(173)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
NJ-15
(156)
WV-5
(257/286)
MO-11
(169)
IN-12
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 283 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/22/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MN-10
(166)
NH-4
(259/283)
ND-3
(158)
AK-3
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(174)
GA-135
(272/279)
LA-9
(155)
NE-5
(86)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(179)
FL-25
(266)
NV-4
(146)
IN-12
(81)
VT-3
(55)
HI-4
(183/359)
NC-14
(241)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(69)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
OH-21
(227)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
TN-11
(73)
OR-7
(212/333)
DE-3
(206)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
ME-4
(77)
WA-11
(223/326)
PA-23
(203)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(131)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
NJ-15
(146)
MI-18
(252/304)
WV-5
(174)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(156)
SD-3
(255/286)
MO-11
(169)
KY-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Georgia, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Georgia is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/15/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(153)
MI-18
(259/297)
ND-3
(158)
AK-3
(89)
RI-4
(19)
NJ-15
(168)
GA-135
(272/279)
LA-9
(155)
NE-5
(86)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
FL-25
(266)
NV-4
(146)
IN-12
(81)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
NC-14
(241)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(69)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
OH-21
(227)
MS-7
(129)
MT-3
(60)
HI-4
(66)
OR-7
(212/333)
DE-3
(206)
CO-8
(122)
SC-8
(57)
TN-11
(77)
WA-11
(223/326)
PA-23
(203)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
ME-4
(81)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
WY-3
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(135)
NH-4
(238/304)
WV-5
(174)
AZ-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
KY-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Georgia, he would have gained 272 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Georgia is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/8/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(153)
FL-25
(266/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
NJ-15
(168)
MI-185
(284/272)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
PA-23
(254)
NV-4
(146)
NE-5
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
GA-13
(231)
VA-13
(142)
IN-12
(73)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
NC-14
(218)
CO-8
(129)
AL-9
(61)
HI-4
(66)
OR-7
(212/333)
OH-21
(204)
MS-7
(121)
MT-3
(52)
CA-54
(120)
WA-11
(223/326)
DE-3
(183)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
TN-11
(131)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
ME-4
(135)
NH-4
(238/304)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (8/1/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
FL-25
(266/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
MI-185
(284/272)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
PA-23
(254)
NV-4
(146)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
GA-13
(231)
VA-13
(142)
NE-5
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
NC-14
(218)
CO-8
(129)
AL-9
(70)
HI-4
(66)
OR-7
(212/333)
OH-21
(204)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
CA-54
(120)
WA-11
(223/326)
DE-3
(183)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
TN-11
(131)
WI-11
(234/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
ME-4
(135)
NH-4
(238/304)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/25/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
FL-25
(266/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
MI-185
(284/272)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
DE-3
(254)
NV-4
(146)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
PA-23
(251)
VA-13
(142)
NE-5
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
GA-13
(228)
CO-8
(129)
AL-9
(70)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
NC-14
(215)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
CA-54
(120)
OR-7
(223/322)
OH-21
(201)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
TN-11
(131)
NH-4
(227/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
ME-4
(135)
WI-11
(238/311)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
MD-10
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/18/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
MI-18
(259/297)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
FL-255
(284/279)
LA-9
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
DE-3
(254)
NV-4
(146)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
PA-23
(251)
VA-13
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
GA-13
(228)
CO-8
(129)
NE-5
(66)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
OH-21
(215)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
MD-10
(76)
OR-7
(223/322)
NC-14
(194)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
NH-4
(227/315)
AR-6
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
WI-11
(238/311)
WV-5
(174)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
SD-3
(241/300)
MO-11
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling averages less than one percentage point.

5 Florida is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/11/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
SD-3
(264/277)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
RI-4
(19)
CT-8
(168)
MI-185
(282/274)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
NY-33
(52)
NM-54
(173)
DE-3
(256)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
MN-10
(183/365)
FL-25
(253)
CO-8
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
GA-13
(228)
VA-13
(134)
NE-5
(66)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
OH-21
(215)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(61)
MD-10
(76)
OR-7
(223/322)
NC-14
(194)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
NH-4
(227/315)
WV-5
(180)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
PA-23
(250/311)
MO-11
(175)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
WI-11
(261/288)
AR-6
(164)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Michigan, he would have gained 282 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling averages less than one percentage point.

5 Michigan is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (7/4/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
PA-235
(279/282)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
CT-8
(168)
WI-11
(259)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
MN-10
(178)
SD-3
(248)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
NM-54
(183)
DE-3
(245)
CO-8
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
FL-25
(242)
VA-13
(134)
IN-12
(66)
HI-4
(66)
MI-18
(223/333)
GA-13
(217)
MS-7
(121)
NE-5
(54)
MD-10
(76)
WA-11
(234/315)
OH-21
(204)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
MO-11
(245/304)
NC-14
(183)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
OR-7
(252/293)
WV-5
(169)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
NH-4
(256/286)
AR-6
(164)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 279 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/27/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
NJ-15
(160)
NH-4
(267/259)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
CT-8
(168)
PA-235
(290/271)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
MN-10
(178)
SD-3
(248)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
VT-3
(55)
NM-54
(183)
DE-3
(245)
CO-8
(142)
AL-9
(75)
IA-7
(62)
IL-22
(205/355)
FL-25
(242)
VA-13
(134)
IN-12
(66)
HI-4
(66)
WA-11
(216/333)
GA-13
(217)
MS-7
(121)
NE-5
(54)
MD-10
(76)
MI-18
(234/315)
OH-21
(204)
KS-6
(114)
OK-8
(49)
CA-54
(130)
WI-11
(245/304)
NC-14
(183)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
TN-11
(141)
OR-7
(252/293)
WV-5
(169)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
ME-4
(145)
MO-11
(263/286)
AR-6
(164)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 290 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/20/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
ND-3
(158)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
MO-115
(273/276)
NV-4
(155)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-23
(265)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
CO-8
(142)
OK-8
(75)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
AL-9
(67)
IA-7
(66)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
HI-4
(70)
IL-22
(215/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
MD-10
(80)
WA-11
(226/323)
OH-21
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(134)
MI-18
(244/312)
NC-14
(177)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
WI-11
(255/294)
WV-5
(163)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Missouri, he would have gained 273 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Missouri is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/13/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
WV-5
(159)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
MO-115
(273/276)
ND-3
(154)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-23
(265)
LA-9
(151)
MT-3
(78)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
CO-8
(142)
OK-8
(75)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
AL-9
(67)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
OH-21
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
NC-14
(177)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
NV-4
(163)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Missouri, he would have gained 273 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Missouri is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (6/6/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
NV-4
(155)
KY-8
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
MO-115
(273/276)
WV-5
(151)
AK-3
(81)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-23
(265)
ND-3
(146)
MT-3
(78)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
LA-9
(143)
OK-8
(75)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
AL-9
(67)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
CO-8
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
OH-21
(190)
WY-3
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
NC-14
(169)
AZ-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Missouri, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Missouri is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/30/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
OR-7
(262/283)
NV-4
(155)
AZ-8
(88)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
PA-235
(285/276)
WV-5
(151)
KY-8
(80)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
MO-11
(253)
ND-3
(146)
AK-3
(72)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
SD-3
(242)
LA-9
(143)
MT-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
FL-25
(239)
VA-13
(134)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
DE-3
(214)
MS-7
(121)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
GA-13
(211)
KS-6
(114)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
CO-8
(198)
SC-8
(108)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
OH-21
(190)
AL-9
(100)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
NC-14
(169)
WY-3
(91)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 285 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/23/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
MT-3
(258/283)
NC-14
(166)
WY-3
(88)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
OR-7
(265/280)
NV-4
(152)
AZ-8
(85)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-235
(288/273)
WV-5
(148)
KY-8
(77)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
MO-11
(250)
ND-3
(143)
AK-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
SD-3
(239)
LA-9
(140)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
NM-54
(193)
FL-25
(236)
VA-13
(131)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
WA-11
(204/345)
DE-3
(211)
MS-7
(118)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
IL-22
(226/323)
GA-13
(208)
KS-6
(111)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
WI-11
(237/312)
CO-8
(195)
SC-8
(105)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MI-18
(255/301)
OH-21
(187)
AL-9
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/16/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
TN-11
(151)
MI-18
(258/298)
NC-14
(161)
AL-9
(89)
NY-33
(48)
ME-4
(155)
OR-7
(265/280)
NV-4
(147)
WY-3
(80)
RI-4
(52)
NJ-15
(170)
PA-235
(288/273)
DE-3
(143)
KY-8
(77)
NH-4
(56)
MN-10
(180)
MO-11
(250)
WV-5
(140)
AK-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
CT-8
(188)
SD-3
(239)
ND-3
(135)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
WI-114
(199)
FL-25
(236)
LA-9
(132)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
NM-5
(204)
GA-13
(211)
VA-13
(123)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
WA-11
(215/334)
CO-8
(198)
MS-7
(110)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
IL-22
(237/323)
AZ-8
(190)
KS-6
(103)
ID-4
(36)
AR-6
(140)
MT-3
(240/301)
OH-21
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/9/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
AR-6
(148)
MI-18
(258/298)
NC-14
(161)
AL-9
(89)
NY-33
(48)
TN-11
(159)
OR-7
(265/280)
NV-4
(147)
WY-3
(80)
RI-4
(52)
ME-4
(163)
PA-235
(288/273)
DE-3
(143)
KY-8
(77)
NH-4
(56)
NJ-15
(178)
MO-11
(250)
WV-5
(140)
AK-3
(69)
VT-3
(59)
MN-10
(188)
SD-3
(239)
ND-3
(135)
OK-8
(66)
CA-54
(113)
WI-114
(199)
FL-25
(236)
LA-9
(132)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(120)
NM-5
(204)
GA-13
(211)
VA-13
(123)
NE-5
(46)
HI-4
(124)
WA-11
(215/334)
CO-8
(198)
MS-7
(110)
UT-5
(41)
MD-10
(134)
IL-22
(237/323)
AZ-8
(190)
KS-6
(103)
ID-4
(36)
CT-8
(142)
MT-3
(240/301)
OH-21
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (5/2/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(157)
MI-18
(258/298)
OH-21
(178)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(163)
OR-7
(265/280)
VA-13
(157)
AL-9
(86)
RI-4
(23)
TN-11
(174)
PA-235
(288/273)
DE-3
(144)
KY-8
(77)
NY-33
(56)
ME-4
(178)
MO-11
(250)
WV-5
(141)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
MN-10
(188)
FL-25
(239)
NC-14
(136)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
WI-114
(199)
SD-3
(214)
ND-3
(122)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(70)
NM-5
(204)
CO-8
(211)
LA-9
(119)
UT-5
(46)
NJ-15
(85)
WA-11
(215/334)
AZ-8
(203)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(139)
IL-22
(237/323)
GA-13
(195)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
MD-10
(149)
MT-3
(240/301)
NV-4
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/25/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
CT-8
(157)
MI-18
(258/298)
NC-14
(178)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(163)
OR-7
(265/280)
OH-21
(164)
AL-9
(86)
RI-4
(23)
TN-11
(174)
PA-235
(288/273)
VA-13
(143)
KY-8
(77)
NY-33
(56)
ME-4
(178)
MO-11
(250)
DE-3
(130)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
MN-10
(188)
FL-25
(239)
WV-5
(127)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
WI-114
(199)
SD-3
(214)
ND-3
(122)
IN-12
(58)
IA-7
(70)
NM-5
(204)
CO-8
(211)
LA-9
(119)
UT-5
(46)
NJ-15
(85)
WA-11
(215/334)
AZ-8
(203)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(139)
IL-22
(237/323)
GA-13
(195)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
MD-10
(149)
MT-3
(240/301)
NV-4
(182)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 288 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/18/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MD-10
(154)
MT-3
(245/296)
OH-21
(177)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
CT-8
(162)
MI-18
(263/293)
NV-4
(156)
KY-8
(86)
RI-4
(23)
AR-6
(168)
OR-75
(270/275)
NC-14
(152)
AL-9
(78)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(179)
PA-23
(268)
VA-13
(138)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(183)
MO-11
(245)
DE-3
(125)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
MN-10
(193)
FL-25
(234)
ND-3
(122)
IN-12
(58)
WV-5
(68)
WI-114
(204)
SD-3
(209)
LA-9
(119)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(215)
CO-8
(206)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
NJ-15
(90)
NM-5
(220)
AZ-8
(198)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
CA-54
(144)
IL-22
(242/318)
GA-13
(190)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Oregon, he would have gained 270 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Oregon is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/11/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
OR-7
(151)
WI-114
(253)
GA-13
(181)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
MD-10
(161)
NM-5
(258)
OH-21
(168)
KY-8
(86)
RI-4
(23)
CT-8
(169)
MT-3
(261/280)
NV-4
(147)
AL-9
(78)
NY-33
(56)
AR-6
(175)
PA-235
(284/277)
NC-14
(143)
AK-3
(69)
NH-4
(60)
TN-11
(186)
MO-11
(254)
VA-13
(129)
OK-8
(66)
VT-3
(63)
ME-4
(190)
FL-25
(243)
DE-3
(116)
IN-12
(58)
WV-5
(68)
MN-10
(200)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(113)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(211)
CO-8
(215)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(129)
IL-22
(233)
MI-18
(207)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
NJ-15
(144)
LA-9
(242)
AZ-8
(189)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (4/4/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
OR-7
(151)
WI-114
(253)
GA-13
(181)
WY-3
(89)
HI-4
(19)
MD-10
(161)
NM-5
(258)
OH-21
(168)
KY-8
(86)
RI-4
(23)
AR-6
(167)
MT-3
(261/280)
NV-4
(147)
AK-3
(78)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(178)
PA-235
(284/277)
NC-14
(143)
OK-8
(75)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(182)
MO-11
(254)
VA-13
(129)
IN-12
(67)
VT-3
(63)
CT-8
(190)
FL-25
(243)
DE-3
(116)
AL-9
(55)
WV-5
(68)
MN-10
(200)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(113)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(211)
CO-8
(215)
MS-7
(110)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(129)
IL-22
(233)
MI-18
(207)
KS-6
(103)
NE-5
(37)
NJ-15
(144)
LA-9
(242)
AZ-8
(189)
SC-8
(97)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (3/28/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
OR-7
(151)
WI-114
(253)
GA-13
(181)
SC-8
(98)
HI-4
(19)
MD-10
(161)
NM-5
(258)
NV-4
(168)
OH-21
(90)
RI-4
(23)
AR-6
(167)
MT-3
(261/280)
NC-14
(164)
WY-3
(69)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(178)
PA-235
(284/277)
VA-13
(150)
KY-8
(66)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(182)
MO-11
(254)
DE-3
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(63)
CT-8
(190)
FL-25
(243)
IN-12
(134)
AL-9
(55)
WV-5
(68)
MN-10
(200)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(122)
UT-5
(46)
IA-7
(75)
WA-11
(211)
CO-8
(215)
OK-8
(119)
ID-4
(41)
CA-54
(129)
IL-22
(233)
MI-18
(207)
MS-7
(111)
NE-5
(37)
NJ-15
(144)
LA-9
(242)
AZ-8
(189)
KS-6
(104)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 284 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Bush crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (3/21/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MD-10
(146)
LA-9
(253)
GA-13
(181)
SC-8
(98)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(152)
NM-54
(258)
NV-4
(168)
OH-21
(90)
RI-4
(23)
WI-11
(163)
PA-235
(281/280)
NC-14
(164)
WY-3
(69)
NY-33
(56)
TN-11
(174)
MT-3
(257)
VA-13
(150)
KY-8
(66)
NH-4
(60)
ME-4
(178)
MO-11
(254)
DE-3
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(63)
NJ-15
(193)
FL-25
(243)
IN-12
(134)
NE-5
(55)
WV-5
(68)
CT-8
(201)
SD-3
(218)
ND-3
(122)
AL-9
(50)
IA-7
(75)
MN-10
(211)
CO-8
(215)
OK-8
(119)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(129)
WA-11
(222)
MI-18
(207)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(36)
OR-7
(136)
IL-22
(244)
AZ-8
(189)
KS-6
(104)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 280 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.


The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1 -- 
Estimated (3/14/00)
MA-12
(15)2 3
MD-10
(146)
IL-22
(247)
FL-25
(193)
SC-8
(98)
HI-4
(19)
AR-6
(152)
PA-234 5
(270/291)
NV-4
(168)
OH-21
(90)
RI-4
(23)
WI-11
(163)
MT-3
(268)
NC-14
(164)
WY-3
(69)
NY-33
(56)
ME-4
(167)
TN-11
(265)
VA-13
(150)
KY-8
(66)
NH-4
(60)
NJ-15
(182)
MO-11
(254)
DE-3
(137)
AK-3
(58)
VT-3
(63)
NM-5
(187)
SD-3
(243)
IN-12
(134)
NE-5
(55)
WV-5
(68)
CT-8
(195)
CO-8
(240)
ND-3
(122)
AL-9
(50)
IA-7
(75)
MN-10
(205)
AZ-8
(232)
OK-8
(119)
UT-5
(41)
CA-54
(129)
WA-11
(216)
GA-13
(224)
MS-7
(111)
ID-4
(36)
OR-7
(136)
LA-9
(225)
MI-18
(211)
KS-6
(104)
TX-32
(32)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Bush had won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania, he would have gained 291 electoral votes. Bush's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.

The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
 States highlighted in orange lettering are states where no polling data is available. In those cases the average of the previous three elections is used to determine the state's position in the rank ordering.

4 
States in bold are states with polling margin averages less than one percentage point.

5 Pennsylvania is the state where Gore crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election according to a weighted average of polls at the state level. That line is referred to as the victory line.
NOTES:
1) Again, the movement of the color lines from cycle to cycle is not as important as the changes in ordering of the states.

2) It is worth mentioning that the 2000 spectrum has the tipping point and partisan line overlapping at Florida. That is a noteworthy change in the dynamic between those two points on the figure. The average space between those two positions on the spectrum from 1984-1996 was 11.5 positions. Now, that is not telling us anything that we did not already know about the 2000 election. The visualization is a function of how close the election was in the electoral college.

3) Also worth noting is the visual change from 1996-2000. The pendulum swings back toward the Republicans, obviously, but everything from 1996 (lines between various categories of states) basically shifts over one column to the left. Both parties locked down (a margin over 10%) at least one column's worth of states.

4) As for the position in 2000 of the most competitive 2012 states, Pennsylvania and Iowa continued to be to the left of the tipping point and Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia to the right. Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio (and Florida) were also to the right of the tipping point, but much more closely aligned in the middle and most competitive column. Overall, the full slate of 2012 swing states were much more tightly clustered around the tipping point. Again, the expectation is that over time this will occur as the elections get closer to 2012.

5) Looking at regions, those border/Appalachian states (Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia) pushed over to the right on the spectrum. All were Republican states in 2000. Unlike 1996, the Pacific states (California, Oregon and Washington) moved away from the Republicans in the ordering. The midwestern states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin) that had been such a big part of the Clinton coalition in 1996 stayed within the Gore coalition of states in 2000 and their positions on the spectrum were largely static over that time as well.

The 2000 Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
VT-3
(171)
FL-253
(292/271)
VA-13
(167)
TX-32
(69)
MA-12
(19)
WA-11
(182)
NH-4
(246)
CO-8
(154)
OK-8
(37)
NY-33
(52)
MI-18
(200)
MO-11
(242)
GA-13
(146)
SD-3
(29)
HI-4
(56)
ME-4
(204)
OH-21
(231)
NC-14
(133)
MT-3
(26)
CT-8
(64)
PA-23
(227)
NV-4
(210)
AL-9
(119)
ND-3
(23)
MD-10
(74)
MN-10
(237)
TN-11
(206)
KY-8
(110)
NE-5
(20)
NJ-15
(89)
OR-7
(244)
AR-6
(195)
IN-12
(102)
AK-3
(15)
DE-3
(92)
IA-7
(251)
AZ-8
(189)
SC-8
(90)
ID-4
(12)
IL-22
(114)
WI-11
(262)
WV-5
(181)
MS-7
(82)
WY-3
(8)
CA-54
(168)
NM-5
(267)
LA-9
(176)
KS-6
(75)
UT-5
(5)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. The darker the color of the cell, the higher the margin was for the winning candidate (Light: < 5%. Medium: 5-10%, Dark: > 10%).

2
The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked up to that state. If, for example, Gore had won all the states up to and including Florida, he would have gained 292 electoral votes. Gore's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Bush's number is on the right and Gore's is on the left in italics.


The electoral votes for Washington, DC are included in the first cell at the top left. Conveniently, the district is historically the most Democratic unit within the electoral college which allows FHQ to push it off the spectrum in the interest of keeping the figure to just 50 slots.

3
Florida is the state where Bush crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.


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